Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?
What resolves this contract
The 2026 Brazil presidential election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. Political parties must file candidate registration applications with the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) for the 2026 Brazil presidential election by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for President of Brazil by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). Otherwise, this market will re
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 84¢ means the market is pricing in a 84.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,540) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($13,709) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 1¢ | $9,787,416 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 13¢ | $9,770,534 |
| Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 5¢ | $991,009 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
The 2026 Brazil presidential election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. Political parties must file candidate registration applications with the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) for the 2026 Brazil presidential election by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for President of Brazil by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). Otherwise, this market will re
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-08-15, 96 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 84¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 16¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 84¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 84.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,540 in total traded volume and $13,709 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.