Will the US economy be in stagflation at the end of 2026?
What resolves this contract
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release. This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026. If either the Decem
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 9¢ means the market is pricing in a 9.2% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,642) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($3,568) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | 2¢ | $999,070 |
| Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? | 21¢ | $994,507 |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 17¢ | $977,368 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release. This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026. If either the Decem
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-01-31, 183 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 9¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 91¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 9¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 9.2% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,642 in total traded volume and $3,568 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.