US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, cessation, or suspension of the United States' offensive military action against Iran, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease offensive military operations against Iran, including an announcement of a ceasefire, truce, or cessation of hostilities to which
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 53¢ means the market is pricing in a 53.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,890) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($94,442) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? | 6¢ | $985,657 |
| Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | 1¢ | $972,145 |
| Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? | 9¢ | $98,918 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, cessation, or suspension of the United States' offensive military action against Iran, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease offensive military operations against Iran, including an announcement of a ceasefire, truce, or cessation of hostilities to which
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-08-31, 43 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 53¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 46¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 53¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 53.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,890 in total traded volume and $94,442 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.