Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 950m and 960m by September 30?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by September 30, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and September 30, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 66¢ means the market is pricing in a 66.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($97,892) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($3,780) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange
Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 6¢ | $982,208 |
| Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 1¢ | $959,846 |
| Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2026? | 13¢ | $99,475 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by September 30, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and September 30, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-01, 21 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 66¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 34¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 66¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 66.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $97,892 in total traded volume and $3,780 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.