politics

Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish government?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2027-01-31 Volume$9,740 Open Interest$16,129
YES
11¢
Implied probability: 11.5%
NO
88¢
Implied probability: 88.5%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 11¢ · High 11¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
11¢
NO Price
88¢
Total Volume
$9,740
Open Interest
$16,129
Expiration
2027-01-31
Days Left
139
About this market

What resolves this contract

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Swedish government following the 2026 parliamentary elections is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that mer

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 11¢ means the market is pricing in a 11.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,740) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($16,129) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Swedish government following the 2026 parliamentary elections is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that mer

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2027-01-31, 139 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 11¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 88¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 11¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 11.5% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,740 in total traded volume and $16,129 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-09-14. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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