economy

Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate after the August Meeting?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-08-05 Volume$9,896 Open Interest$341
YES
86¢
Implied probability: 86.0%
NO
14¢
Implied probability: 14.0%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 86¢ · High 86¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
86¢
NO Price
14¢
Total Volume
$9,896
Open Interest
$341
Expiration
2026-08-05
Days Left
6
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve according to the change in the policy repo rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee’s August meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of India after its meeting scheduled for August 5, 2026. This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy statement for their August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. The statement will be made available here: https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx. I

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 86¢ means the market is pricing in a 86.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,896) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($341) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange

Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve according to the change in the policy repo rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee’s August meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of India after its meeting scheduled for August 5, 2026. This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy statement for their August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. The statement will be made available here: https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx. I

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-08-05, 6 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 86¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 14¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 86¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 86.0% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,896 in total traded volume and $341 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-07-30. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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