politics

Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-11-03 Volume$9,543 Open Interest$27,283
YES
29¢
Implied probability: 29.5%
NO
70¢
Implied probability: 70.5%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 29¢ · High 29¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
29¢
NO Price
70¢
Total Volume
$9,543
Open Interest
$27,283
Expiration
2026-11-03
Days Left
196
About this market

What resolves this contract

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolu

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 29¢ means the market is pricing in a 29.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,543) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($27,283) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolu

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-11-03, 196 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 29¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 70¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 29¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 29.5% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,543 in total traded volume and $27,283 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-04-21. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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