Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI GPT model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be attributed to OpenAI and have “GPT” in its displayed model name, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, version numbers, dates, or descriptors. For example, gpt-5.6-high, chatgpt-6o-latest, or similar would qua
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 94¢ means the market is pricing in a 94.6% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,851) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($11,507) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | 2¢ | $982,436 |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 20¢ | $973,368 |
| Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | 1¢ | $962,329 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI GPT model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be attributed to OpenAI and have “GPT” in its displayed model name, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, version numbers, dates, or descriptors. For example, gpt-5.6-high, chatgpt-6o-latest, or similar would qua
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-12-31, 176 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 94¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 5¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 94¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 94.6% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,851 in total traded volume and $11,507 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.