Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF?
What resolves this contract
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election. A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this marke
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 48¢ means the market is pricing in a 48.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,901) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($2,992) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 10¢ | $981,185 |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | 8¢ | $958,377 |
| Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Cut in the next three decisions (Jun-Jul-Sep)? | 1¢ | $99,979 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election. A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this marke
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-11-07, 59 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 48¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 52¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 48¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 48.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,901 in total traded volume and $2,992 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.