Will the next Google Gemini Flash model be released on September 2, 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Flash model (3.8+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini," be labeled "Flash" rather than "Flash-Lite," be positioned as Google's core general-purpose Gemini Flash model, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.7 Flash would qualify, includin
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 93¢ means the market is pricing in a 93.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,916) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($2,760) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 1¢ | $9,660,614 |
| Will Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 1¢ | $992,437 |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 14¢ | $978,691 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Flash model (3.8+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini," be labeled "Flash" rather than "Flash-Lite," be positioned as Google's core general-purpose Gemini Flash model, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.7 Flash would qualify, includin
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-09-02. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 93¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 6¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 93¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 93.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,916 in total traded volume and $2,760 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.