Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Claude Opus model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any Claude model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-Opus-4.9, claude-Opus-5.0-thinking, claude-Opus-5.1-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 79¢ means the market is pricing in a 79.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,934) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($3,858) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | 3¢ | $988,253 |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | 83¢ | $981,974 |
| Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? | 26¢ | $979,617 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Claude Opus model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any Claude model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-Opus-4.9, claude-Opus-5.0-thinking, claude-Opus-5.1-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-12-31, 159 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 79¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 21¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 79¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 79.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,934 in total traded volume and $3,858 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.