politics

Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-09-13 Volume$9,545 Open Interest$21,009
YES
82¢
Implied probability: 82.5%
NO
17¢
Implied probability: 17.5%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 82¢ · High 82¢ · Δ +0.5pp
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YES Price
82¢
NO Price
17¢
Total Volume
$9,545
Open Interest
$21,009
Expiration
2026-09-13
Days Left
38
About this market

What resolves this contract

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election. If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 82¢ means the market is pricing in a 82.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,545) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($21,009) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election. If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-09-13, 38 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 82¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 18¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 82¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 82.5% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,545 in total traded volume and $21,009 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-08-06. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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