Will the median home value in the US be between $426,000 and $433,000 on September 30?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 20
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 16¢ means the market is pricing in a 16.1% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,707) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($1,098) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange
Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 1¢ | $9,885,146 |
| Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 3¢ | $989,843 |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 14¢ | $978,692 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 20
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-09-30, 27 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 16¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 84¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 16¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 16.1% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,707 in total traded volume and $1,098 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.