economy

Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be at least $345,000 on September 30?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-09-30 Volume$9,956 Open Interest$2,428
YES
22¢
Implied probability: 22.5%
NO
77¢
Implied probability: 77.5%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 22¢ · High 22¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
22¢
NO Price
77¢
Total Volume
$9,956
Open Interest
$2,428
Expiration
2026-09-30
Days Left
67
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in Chicago Metro, IL on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for Chicago Metro, IL (Parcl_ID: 2899845). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1500 square feet, which is the median home size in Chicago Metro. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 22¢ means the market is pricing in a 22.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,956) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($2,428) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in Chicago Metro, IL on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for Chicago Metro, IL (Parcl_ID: 2899845). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1500 square feet, which is the median home size in Chicago Metro. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-09-30, 67 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 22¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 78¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 22¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 22.5% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,956 in total traded volume and $2,428 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-07-25. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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