Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for July 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This marke
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 41¢ means the market is pricing in a 41.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,704) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($6,273) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange
Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 1¢ | $997,780 |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | 1¢ | $996,345 |
| Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? | 20¢ | $993,737 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for July 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This marke
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-08-07, 7 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 41¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 59¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 41¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 41.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,704 in total traded volume and $6,273 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.