Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Centr
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 97¢ means the market is pricing in a 97.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($95,602) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($20,471) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? | 1¢ | $994,905 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? | 3¢ | $994,089 |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | 4¢ | $984,633 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Centr
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-07-23, 11 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 97¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 3¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 97¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 97.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $95,602 in total traded volume and $20,471 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.