Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Starship upper stage for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower’s chopsticks, this market will resolve to “No.” A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the lan
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 22¢ means the market is pricing in a 22.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,639) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($1,240) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | 1¢ | $988,495 |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 17¢ | $978,159 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? | 6¢ | $99,560 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Starship upper stage for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower’s chopsticks, this market will resolve to “No.” A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the lan
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-06-30, 319 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 22¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 78¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 22¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 22.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,639 in total traded volume and $1,240 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.