sports

Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group L?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-07-20 Volume$9,776 Open Interest$165,718
YES
23¢
Implied probability: 23.0%
NO
77¢
Implied probability: 77.0%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 23¢ · High 23¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
23¢
NO Price
77¢
Total Volume
$9,776
Open Interest
$165,718
Expiration
2026-07-20
Days Left
5
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve according to the group from which the winning national team of the 2026 FIFA World Cup originated in the group stage. For example, if a team drawn into Group A wins the tournament, this market will resolve to “Group A”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be u

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 23¢ means the market is pricing in a 23.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,776) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($165,718) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve according to the group from which the winning national team of the 2026 FIFA World Cup originated in the group stage. For example, if a team drawn into Group A wins the tournament, this market will resolve to “Group A”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be u

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-07-20, 5 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 23¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 77¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 23¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 23.0% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,776 in total traded volume and $165,718 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-07-15. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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