Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be at least 3.0%?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row correspondi
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 55¢ means the market is pricing in a 55.9% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,805) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($1,704) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 10¢ | $981,185 |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | 8¢ | $958,377 |
| Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Cut in the next three decisions (Jun-Jul-Sep)? | 1¢ | $99,979 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row correspondi
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-12-31, 113 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 55¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 44¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 55¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 55.9% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,805 in total traded volume and $1,704 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.