Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of tra
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 51¢ means the market is pricing in a 51.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($96,678) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($77,940) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 1¢ | $997,780 |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | 1¢ | $996,345 |
| Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? | 20¢ | $993,737 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of tra
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-12-31, 153 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 51¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 49¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 51¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 51.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $96,678 in total traded volume and $77,940 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.