Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on the last trading day of the calendar month in which SpaceX completes its Initial Public Offering (IPO). The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by SpaceX to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 4¢ means the market is pricing in a 4.9% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($96,465) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($31,073) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange
Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | 63¢ | $999,552 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? | 72¢ | $994,654 |
| Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 1¢ | $990,671 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on the last trading day of the calendar month in which SpaceX completes its Initial Public Offering (IPO). The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by SpaceX to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-07-01, 11 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 4¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 95¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 4¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 4.9% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $96,465 in total traded volume and $31,073 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.