Will Russia capture Vodianske by September 30?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.410003° N, 37.102845° E in Vodianske, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 24¢ means the market is pricing in a 24.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,698) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($4,751) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | 54¢ | $987,664 |
| UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? | 30¢ | $99,351 |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? | 22¢ | $99,244 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.410003° N, 37.102845° E in Vodianske, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-09-30, 66 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 24¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 76¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 24¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 24.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,698 in total traded volume and $4,751 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.