Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, (48.589446° N, 37.831430° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Chasiv Yar will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ru
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 45¢ means the market is pricing in a 45.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,589) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($11,603) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | 1¢ | $972,721 |
| Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? | 8¢ | $98,976 |
| Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026? | 61¢ | $97,823 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, (48.589446° N, 37.831430° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Chasiv Yar will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ru
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-12-31, 164 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 45¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 54¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 45¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 45.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,589 in total traded volume and $11,603 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.