politics

Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-10-04 Volume$986,454 Open Interest$80,901
YES
Implied probability: 4.9%
NO
95¢
Implied probability: 95.1%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 4¢ · High 4¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
NO Price
95¢
Total Volume
$986,454
Open Interest
$80,901
Expiration
2026-10-04
Days Left
166
About this market

What resolves this contract

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at means the market is pricing in a 4.9% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($986,454) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($80,901) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-10-04, 166 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 4¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 95¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 4¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 4.9% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $986,454 in total traded volume and $80,901 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-04-21. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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