politics

Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2099-12-31 Volume$9,888 Open Interest$16,357
YES
30¢
Implied probability: 30.5%
NO
69¢
Implied probability: 69.5%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 30¢ · High 30¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
30¢
NO Price
69¢
Total Volume
$9,888
Open Interest
$16,357
Expiration
2099-12-31
Days Left
26892
About this market

What resolves this contract

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 30¢ means the market is pricing in a 30.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,888) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($16,357) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2099-12-31, 26892 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 30¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 70¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 30¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 30.5% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,888 in total traded volume and $16,357 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-05-16. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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