politics

Will Republicans win 2 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2027-01-05 Volume$9,665 Open Interest$202
YES
64¢
Implied probability: 64.5%
NO
35¢
Implied probability: 35.5%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 64¢ · High 64¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
64¢
NO Price
35¢
Total Volume
$9,665
Open Interest
$202
Expiration
2027-01-05
Days Left
107
About this market

What resolves this contract

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election. All Gubernatorial elections, and all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress, that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 64¢ means the market is pricing in a 64.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,665) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($202) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election. All Gubernatorial elections, and all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress, that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2027-01-05, 107 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 64¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 36¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 64¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 64.5% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,665 in total traded volume and $202 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-09-20. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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