Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?
What resolves this contract
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI “Astra” model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a model first appears on the site but is removed before
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 84¢ means the market is pricing in a 85.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,600) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($513) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | 1¢ | $978,992 |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 13¢ | $978,692 |
| Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026? | 1¢ | $99,761 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI “Astra” model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a model first appears on the site but is removed before
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-12-31, 117 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 84¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 15¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 84¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 85.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,600 in total traded volume and $513 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.