Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between September 7 and September 13, 2026?
What resolves this contract
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/. This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebr
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 1¢ means the market is pricing in a 1.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,854) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($11,501) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | 9¢ | $999,652 |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 14¢ | $978,692 |
| Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | 1¢ | $978,619 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/. This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebr
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-09-13, 9 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 1¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 99¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 1¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 1.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,854 in total traded volume and $11,501 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.