Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any u
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 2¢ means the market is pricing in a 2.8% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($954,137) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($81,790) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | 1¢ | $9,999,589 |
| Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? | 3¢ | $997,266 |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 1¢ | $995,863 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any u
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-06-30, 20 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 2¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 97¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 2¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 2.8% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $954,137 in total traded volume and $81,790 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.