world

Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-09-20 Volume$9,582 Open Interest$21,735
YES
23¢
Implied probability: 23.5%
NO
76¢
Implied probability: 76.5%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 23¢ · High 23¢ · Δ +0.0pp
Advertisement
Kalshi · $25 sign-up bonus Trade event contracts legally in the US. Get $25 free. Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US exchange for event contracts. Sign up with our link and get $25 in trading credit, no deposit required to claim. This specific contract is on Polymarket (not available to US traders), but Kalshi lists similar events. Open an account →
YES Price
23¢
NO Price
76¢
Total Volume
$9,582
Open Interest
$21,735
Expiration
2026-09-20
Days Left
74
About this market

What resolves this contract

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. I

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 23¢ means the market is pricing in a 23.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,582) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($21,735) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

Advertisement
Related

Markets in the same story

MarketYESVolume
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? $999,344
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? $993,249
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? $991,471
FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. I

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-09-20, 74 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 23¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 76¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 23¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 23.5% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,582 in total traded volume and $21,735 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-07-08. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
Get new posts in your inbox. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.