Will Michael Olise Transfer to Real Madrid?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Michael Olise transfers from Bayern Munich to Real Madrid by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Loan deals will qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Bayern Munich and Real Madrid and a consensus of credible media reporting.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 12¢ means the market is pricing in a 12.7% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,562) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($4,060) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | 4¢ | $988,182 |
| Estoril Open: Nuno Borges vs Roman Andres Burruchaga | 1¢ | $978,607 |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 17¢ | $977,310 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Michael Olise transfers from Bayern Munich to Real Madrid by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Loan deals will qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Bayern Munich and Real Madrid and a consensus of credible media reporting.
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-08-31, 40 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 12¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 87¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 12¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 12.7% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,562 in total traded volume and $4,060 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.