politics

Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-08-04 Volume$9,593 Open Interest$14,424
YES
90¢
Implied probability: 90.0%
NO
Implied probability: 10.0%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 90¢ · High 90¢ · Δ +0.0pp
Advertisement
Kalshi · $25 sign-up bonus Trade event contracts legally in the US. Get $25 free. Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US exchange for event contracts. Sign up with our link and get $25 in trading credit, no deposit required to claim. This specific contract is on Polymarket (not available to US traders), but Kalshi lists similar events. Open an account →
YES Price
90¢
NO Price
Total Volume
$9,593
Open Interest
$14,424
Expiration
2026-08-04
Days Left
43
About this market

What resolves this contract

The non-partisan primary election for the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives is scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. The two candidates who receive the most votes in this primary election will qualify for the General Election. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 WA-03 congressional district primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” T

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 90¢ means the market is pricing in a 90.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,593) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($14,424) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

Advertisement
Related

Markets in the same story

MarketYESVolume
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? $9,988,938
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? $9,808,227
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? $9,761,936
FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

The non-partisan primary election for the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives is scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. The two candidates who receive the most votes in this primary election will qualify for the General Election. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 WA-03 congressional district primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” T

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-08-04, 43 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 90¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 10¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 90¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 90.0% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,593 in total traded volume and $14,424 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-06-22. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
Get new posts in your inbox. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.