Will Marco Rubio visit China by December 31, 2026?
What resolves this contract
If Marco Rubio visits China by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Rubio physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Whether or not Rubio enters Chinese airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from Marco Rubio, the US Federal Government, and the Chinese government; however, a consensus of credible reporti
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 78¢ means the market is pricing in a 78.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,726) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($18,637) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | 63¢ | $998,258 |
| Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 1¢ | $992,161 |
| Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 1¢ | $992,161 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
If Marco Rubio visits China by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Rubio physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Whether or not Rubio enters Chinese airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from Marco Rubio, the US Federal Government, and the Chinese government; however, a consensus of credible reporti
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-12-31, 239 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 78¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 21¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 78¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 78.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,726 in total traded volume and $18,637 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.