Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?
What resolves this contract
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this rank
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 50¢ means the market is pricing in a 50.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,829) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($322) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 6¢ | $9,879,390 |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | 1¢ | $9,648,519 |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? | 14¢ | $99,489 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this rank
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-04, 24 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 50¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 50¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 50¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 50.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,829 in total traded volume and $322 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.