Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?
What resolves this contract
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all v
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 40¢ means the market is pricing in a 40.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,546) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($32,548) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 1¢ | $9,971,821 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | 6¢ | $9,735,859 |
| Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | 1¢ | $9,707,184 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all v
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-04, 91 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 40¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 60¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 40¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 40.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,546 in total traded volume and $32,548 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.