Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?
What resolves this contract
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all v
Reading the odds on this market
At 58.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 58.0% chance this happens, roughly 1.4 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 17 contracts that pay $17.24 if it happens; $10 on NO at 42.0¢ buys about 23.8 that pay $23.81 if it does not.
$97,381 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $39,391 still riding on the outcome, making it number 29 by volume of the 204 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 57¢ means the market is pricing in a 58.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($97,381) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($39,391) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September? | 1¢ | $995,253 |
| Will Karim Bouamrane win the 2027 French presidential election? | 1¢ | $966,769 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 13¢ | $965,243 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all v
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-05, 7 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 57¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 42¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 57¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 58.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $97,381 in total traded volume and $39,391 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.