sports

Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-07-20 Volume$9,995 Open Interest$12,798
YES
86¢
Implied probability: 86.5%
NO
13¢
Implied probability: 13.5%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 86¢ · High 86¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
86¢
NO Price
13¢
Total Volume
$9,995
Open Interest
$12,798
Expiration
2026-07-20
Days Left
38
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed player scores a goal during any match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. A goal scored during regular time, stoppage time, and extra time will be considered. No goal scored by way of own goal or penalty shootout will be considered. A goal scored by way of penalty kick during regular time, stoppage time, and extra time will count toward a “Yes” resolution. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or it cannot be determined if the listed player scored a goa

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 86¢ means the market is pricing in a 86.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,995) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($12,798) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? $99,647
FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed player scores a goal during any match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. A goal scored during regular time, stoppage time, and extra time will be considered. No goal scored by way of own goal or penalty shootout will be considered. A goal scored by way of penalty kick during regular time, stoppage time, and extra time will count toward a “Yes” resolution. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or it cannot be determined if the listed player scored a goa

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-07-20, 38 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 86¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 14¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 86¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 86.5% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,995 in total traded volume and $12,798 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-06-12. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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