Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kraken's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If n
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 45¢ means the market is pricing in a 45.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,922) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($808) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange
Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the high temp in LA be >80° on Jul 9, 2026: 81° or above | 1¢ | $281,689 |
| Will the high temp in LA be 73-74° on Jul 9, 2026: 73° to 74° | 89¢ | $108,775 |
| Will the high temp in LA be 77-78° on Jul 9, 2026: 77° to 78° | 1¢ | $90,884 |
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | 2¢ | $982,469 |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026? | 5¢ | $981,166 |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 20¢ | $973,530 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kraken's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If n
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-01-01, 176 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 45¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 54¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 45¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 45.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,922 in total traded volume and $808 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.