Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 0% and 3%?
What resolves this contract
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all vali
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 1¢ means the market is pricing in a 1.1% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,725) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($5,470) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 13¢ | $9,975,934 |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 1¢ | $9,725,155 |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 1¢ | $9,561,986 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all vali
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-05-25, 2 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 1¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 99¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 1¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 1.1% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,725 in total traded volume and $5,470 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.