politics

Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-08-18 Volume$9,841 Open Interest$14,344
YES
78¢
Implied probability: 78.5%
NO
21¢
Implied probability: 21.5%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 78¢ · High 78¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
78¢
NO Price
21¢
Total Volume
$9,841
Open Interest
$14,344
Expiration
2026-08-18
Days Left
4
About this market

What resolves this contract

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 78¢ means the market is pricing in a 78.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,841) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($14,344) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-08-18, 4 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 78¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 21¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 78¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 78.5% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,841 in total traded volume and $14,344 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-08-14. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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