Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between JD Vance as representative of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their govern
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 19¢ means the market is pricing in a 19.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,761) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($12,729) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 1¢ | $991,250 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | 8¢ | $971,780 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? | 1¢ | $968,611 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between JD Vance as representative of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their govern
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-05-31, 27 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 19¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 80¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 19¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 19.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,761 in total traded volume and $12,729 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.