Will Jair Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
What resolves this contract
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". T
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 3¢ means the market is pricing in a 3.2% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,522) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($17,867) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 1¢ | $9,991,389 |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 1¢ | $9,895,175 |
| Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 2¢ | $9,807,869 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". T
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-04, 161 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 3¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 97¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 3¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 3.2% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,522 in total traded volume and $17,867 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.