economy

Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 1 and June 7, 2026?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-06-28 Volume$9,778 Open Interest$4,266
YES
13¢
Implied probability: 13.5%
NO
86¢
Implied probability: 86.5%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 13¢ · High 13¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
13¢
NO Price
86¢
Total Volume
$9,778
Open Interest
$4,266
Expiration
2026-06-28
Days Left
25
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public. GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 13¢ means the market is pricing in a 13.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,778) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($4,266) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange

Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.

MarketYESVolume
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Will the S&P 500 be between 7550 and 7574.9999 on Jun 3, 2026 at 4pm EDT: 7,550 57¢ $1,860
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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public. GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-06-28, 25 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 13¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 86¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 13¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 13.5% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,778 in total traded volume and $4,266 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-06-03. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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