economy

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-12-31 Volume$9,839 Open Interest$13,967
YES
24¢
Implied probability: 24.5%
NO
75¢
Implied probability: 75.5%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 24¢ · High 24¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
24¢
NO Price
75¢
Total Volume
$9,839
Open Interest
$13,967
Expiration
2026-12-31
Days Left
149
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market’s creation will not be considered. For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on th

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 24¢ means the market is pricing in a 24.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,839) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($13,967) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange

Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.

MarketYESVolume
Will the high temp in LA be >82° on Aug 4, 2026: 83° or above $152,390
Will the high temp in LA be 79-80° on Aug 4, 2026: 79° to 80° $133,547
Will the high temp in LA be 75-76° on Aug 4, 2026: 75° to 76° $91,636
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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market’s creation will not be considered. For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on th

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-12-31, 149 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 24¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 76¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 24¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 24.5% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,839 in total traded volume and $13,967 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-08-04. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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