Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 82¢ means the market is pricing in a 82.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,666) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($2,867) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange
Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | 2¢ | $986,981 |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 10¢ | $974,677 |
| Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | 1¢ | $965,868 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-08-01, 15 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 82¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 18¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 82¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 82.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,666 in total traded volume and $2,867 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.