economy

Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2028-12-31 Volume$9,587 Open Interest$2,489
YES
49¢
Implied probability: 49.5%
NO
50¢
Implied probability: 50.5%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 49¢ · High 49¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
49¢
NO Price
50¢
Total Volume
$9,587
Open Interest
$2,489
Expiration
2028-12-31
Days Left
851
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible r

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 49¢ means the market is pricing in a 49.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,587) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($2,489) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible r

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2028-12-31, 851 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 49¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 50¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 49¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 49.5% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,587 in total traded volume and $2,489 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-09-02. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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