economy

Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-09-20 Volume$9,577 Open Interest$3,253
YES
48¢
Implied probability: 48.5%
NO
51¢
Implied probability: 51.5%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 48¢ · High 48¢ · Δ +0.0pp
Advertisement
Kalshi · $25 sign-up bonus Trade event contracts legally in the US. Get $25 free. Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US exchange for event contracts. Sign up with our link and get $25 in trading credit, no deposit required to claim. This specific contract is on Polymarket (not available to US traders), but Kalshi lists similar events. Open an account → Gemini · Trade $100, get $20 Prediction markets on a regulated US crypto exchange. Gemini is the NYDFS-regulated exchange offering prediction markets alongside spot crypto. New users who trade $100 get $20. Affiliate link; we may earn a commission at no cost to you. Claim the offer →
YES Price
48¢
NO Price
51¢
Total Volume
$9,577
Open Interest
$3,253
Expiration
2026-09-20
Days Left
36
About this market

What resolves this contract

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Regierender Bürgermeister (Governing Mayor) of Berlin following the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Governing Mayor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Governing Mayor takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution sourc

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 48¢ means the market is pricing in a 48.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,577) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($3,253) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

Advertisement
Related

Markets in the same story

MarketYESVolume
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? $988,169
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? 17¢ $978,159
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? $99,560
FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Regierender Bürgermeister (Governing Mayor) of Berlin following the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Governing Mayor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Governing Mayor takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution sourc

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-09-20, 36 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 48¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 52¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 48¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 48.5% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,577 in total traded volume and $3,253 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-08-15. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
Get new posts in your inbox. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.