Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which U.S. President Donald Trump next visits China. For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media ac
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 36¢ means the market is pricing in a 36.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,635) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($5,151) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 1¢ | $967,070 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? | 1¢ | $964,064 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | 10¢ | $957,276 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which U.S. President Donald Trump next visits China. For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media ac
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-05-31, 30 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 36¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 64¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 36¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 36.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,635 in total traded volume and $5,151 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.