Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market resolves to “Yes” if a written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran that establishes a commitment for Iranian-controlled enriched uranium to be downblended or diluted has been mutually signed or otherwise formally adopted by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying written instrument must provide for any quantity of enriched uranium held by Iran to be downblended or diluted to a lower enrichment level. The establishment of an enrichment cap or an enrichment moratorium, without a commitment to downblend or dilute alr
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 22¢ means the market is pricing in a 22.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($95,296) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($19,992) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? | 6¢ | $994,488 |
| Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | 23¢ | $98,142 |
| Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | 25¢ | $98,037 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market resolves to “Yes” if a written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran that establishes a commitment for Iranian-controlled enriched uranium to be downblended or diluted has been mutually signed or otherwise formally adopted by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying written instrument must provide for any quantity of enriched uranium held by Iran to be downblended or diluted to a lower enrichment level. The establishment of an enrichment cap or an enrichment moratorium, without a commitment to downblend or dilute alr
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-12-31, 144 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 22¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 78¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 22¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 22.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $95,296 in total traded volume and $19,992 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.