Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs). A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 46¢ means the market is pricing in a 46.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,628) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($3,688) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 1¢ | $9,860,174 |
| Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 1¢ | $9,836,023 |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | 19¢ | $976,995 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs). A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-11-03, 130 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 46¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 53¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 46¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 46.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,628 in total traded volume and $3,688 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.