politics

Will Darijana Filipović be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-10-04 Volume$9,555 Open Interest$3,035
YES
47¢
Implied probability: 47.5%
NO
52¢
Implied probability: 52.5%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 47¢ · High 47¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
47¢
NO Price
52¢
Total Volume
$9,555
Open Interest
$3,035
Expiration
2026-10-04
Days Left
67
About this market

What resolves this contract

The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Croat member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election. Interim, temporary, or caretaker P

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 47¢ means the market is pricing in a 47.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,555) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($3,035) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Croat member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election. Interim, temporary, or caretaker P

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-10-04, 67 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 47¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 52¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 47¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 47.5% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,555 in total traded volume and $3,035 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-07-29. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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